India is poised to emerge as a USD 26 trillion economy by 2047–48, with per capita income exceeding USD 15,000, nearly six times the current level, according to a report by Ernst & Young (EY). The projection assumes a stable yet modest average growth rate of around 6 per cent per annum.
India’s Rising Global Economic Position
The EY report highlights that India is likely to overtake Germany and Japan and become the third-largest economy globally by 2030, after China and the United States. India has already achieved critical mass as the world’s fifth-largest economy, driven largely by economic liberalisation policies that enabled market orientation, increased private capital participation, and enhanced global competitiveness.
India’s long-term growth projections remain the highest among large global economies, reinforcing its expanding role in the global economic landscape.
Services Exports as a Key Growth Engine
India’s services exports have grown by 14 per cent over the last two decades, reaching USD 254.5 billion in 2021–22.
A significant portion of this growth comes from:
- IT Services and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)
- IT and BPO exports valued at USD 157 billion in 2021–22
This growth has been supported by both Indian-headquartered firms and global IT companies operating in India.
Global Capability Centers Powering India’s “Office of the World” Role
The report underlines the critical role of Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India’s economic success:
- Global corporations employ over 5 million people through capability centres in India
- India hosts 1,500 GCCs, representing 45 per cent of global GCCs
- What began as cost arbitrage has evolved into a source of high-quality talent and innovation
These factors have enabled India to position itself as the “office of the world”, supporting global enterprises at scale.
Demographic Advantage and Global Talent Supply
India’s demographic strength remains a critical advantage. With approximately one-sixth of the world’s population, India is expected to become the largest contributor to the global workforce over the coming decades, particularly as developed economies face talent shortages due to demographic shifts.
Conclusion
According to EY, the convergence of services exports, GCC-led innovation, digital infrastructure, and demographic advantage places India on a strong trajectory toward becoming a USD 26 trillion economy by 2047–48. These factors collectively reinforce India’s growing role as a global hub for talent, technology, and innovation.
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